Friday, December 7, 2007

It happened one night

For seven years the US maintained that Iran was attempting to develop nuclear weapons. However, a new US national intelligence estimate (NIE), released on December 3, 2007, has concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003.

The assessment that the programme remains frozen represents the consensus view of 16 US intelligence agencies. This finding of the US intelligence community is consistent with that of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The Iranian foreign ministry has welcomed the US report.

The finding, however, challenges the views of President Bush and vice-president Dick Cheney who warned in October this year that if Iran continued on the present course the international community would impose serious strictures.

The French foreign minister talked about the inevitability of war if Iran did not stop its uranium enrichment and efforts to acquire nuclear weapons.

The Security Council, with unanimous support of five permanent members, imposed two rounds of sanctions on Iran on the ground that Iran was defying the international community’s demand to halt its uranium enrichment programme.

In 2005, the NIE of US assessed with high confidence that Iran was very keen to develop nuclear weapons. However, there was a caveat that Iran was not unmovable in this respect. The NIE also assessed that Iran was unlikely to reach weapon capability before early or the middle of the next decade.

In 2007, the NIE concludes with high confidence that Iran halted its nuclear programme in the fall of 2003. It says that the programme was not restarted and that Iran would be able to accumulate enough enriched uranium for a possible weapon between 2010-15.

It is possible that there is a gap between the occurrence of an event and information agencies collecting information about it and assessing it. It is obvious that during 2005 intelligence on the Iranian decision to halt its weapon acquisition effort had not reached Washington and that intelligence became available only in the current year. When the report of the director-general of IAEA was considered in the board of governors in September 2005 the agency could not certify that there were no clandestine activities or equipment in Iran. At that stage it was clear that Iranians had not come clear and told IAEA about their transactions with A Q Khan of Pakistan.

Iran decided to halt the weapon acquisition effort in the fall of 2003. On October 4, 2003, US and British intelligence services boarded the ship BBC China and seized centrifuge equipment which was on its way to Libya from Dubai where Khan’s nuclear Walmart was headquartered. The Iranian nuclear weapon effort was based on collaboration with Khan. Iran’s centrifuges — the two models P-1 and P-2 — originated from Khan’s laboratory.

Therefore, one wonders whether the boarding of the ship BBC China, winding up of Khan’s Dubai-based operations and halting of Iran’s weapons effort are related developments.

In February 2004, Khan publicly confessed on Pakistan TV about his proliferation activity. With the capture of the cargo of BBC China, Libya publicly gave up all nuclear ambitions and cooperated with the Central Intelligence Agency and MI-6.

All this happened soon after the US invasion and occupation of Iraq. This flurry of developments within a short period perhaps goes to explain why Iran halted its nuclear weapons effort in the fall of 2003.

It is obvious that Iranian cooperation with IAEA was less than optimal and continues to be so. The director-general in his statement on the NIE has said that it tallies with IAEA’s consistent statements over the last few years.

Although Iran still needs to clarify some important aspects of its past and present nuclear activities, the agency has no concrete evidence of an ongoing nuclear weapons programme or undeclared nuclear facilities in Iran. Iranians have clarified many of the issues raised by IAEA since the discovery of the clandestine centrifuge programme and improved their credibility vis-a-vis the IAEA.

Perhaps, if IAEA and US had been allowed direct access to Khan the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme could have been clear at an earlier stage.

However, there is no denying that Iran had a clandestine nuclear weapons programme supported by Khan and kept IAEA out of the picture. Therefore, India’s votes in the IAEA in 2005-06 were fully justified.

Fortunately, a realistic intelligence assessment on Iranian nuclear programme has emerged and the kind of motivated misassessment as was seen in the case of Iraqi WMD programme has been averted. Given the kind of political pressure being exerted by the US president, vice-president, the administration and legislative leaders on the Iranian nuclear issue, NIE assessors have displayed enormous courage in coming out with their finding.

The credibility of the US intelligence process has taken a beating in recent times. Their assessments on Iraq’s and Iran’s nuclear programmes were off the mark.

Recent books such as Shopping for Bombs by Gordon Corera and Deception by Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark have brought to light US’s acceptance of Pakistan’s China-supported nuclear programme.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Can India handle Terrorist attack?

Nothing better and logical should be expected from highly corrupt politicians & political parties, equally corrupt officials and bureaucrats. All is for sale with money and terrorists have plenty of funds to throw to these corrupt people.

Monday, December 3, 2007

A reality Check for IITs -An expert's Views/Still, Miles to go!!!!!!!!!!!

He Bhagwan! When we Indians learn to be modest! I am a post graduate from IIT:Kharagpur; a Masters in Aluminium Technology from Volgograd: Russia and an MBA from Leeds :UK and a very senior PSU working executive for 35 years who has travelled the length and width of the world and have been interacting with Delhi and Mumbai IITs regarding industrial research over last 5 years. How many noble lauriates teach in our IITs or have received guest lectures from them over last deacde? What is the volume strength of the reference library? How confortable and hygenic are the working and living conditions of students and research scholors at our IITs? In PG studies- what is the ratio of students to sq ft area? Do the corridors of Worton have 'paan' stained corridors and dingy teachers' rooms and smelly canteens and dining halls? Yes- the students are 'creame-da-la- creame' and our IITs are great basically for the quality of students it gets- but teachers- infrastructure and reasearch quality would take centuries and not just decades to catch up with an average western universities, what to talk of Worton, Harvard, Princetan, California, Pardue, Oxford, Cambridge, Manchester,Leeds, Yorks, Edinburg, Shefield, Moscow, Beijing, Shanghai, Sydney, Christchurch, Toranto, Waterloo, Amesterdam, geneve, Lion, Paris, Rio etc.etc. etc. (Yes- I have visited most of them! There are three places I always make it a point to visit in every city and country - the fish market, the acheological meuseum and the university campus!). For heavens sake - stop singing in parise of our self proclaimed great institutions. We have a long way to go to catch up with the best! As for salaries- Engineers are needed in Finance depts of banks and financial institutions as project analysts and venture caapital evaluatore. All our Indian banks also recruit Engineers for such job. There is no competition to pure engineering graduates from CAs or MBAs for such jobs. Engineer MBAs with project finance and operations research specialisations and relevant work experience are ver expensive and command 2-3 times the salararies you have quoted. In USA- a simple fresh graduate, from any art, humanities or science backgroung, without any brilliant academic achievementw ould expect a salary of $35 to 60,000 PA when placed in a smaller and a less expensive location. At the high end of placement, say New York, Chicago, California etc, the salary range would be $50,000 to 75,000 for the same job. Atop achiever or a student with graduate degrees or a product from the top 5-10 schools in USA, can expect double of these annual wages. All in all- the wage structure in the west is drived from a complicated formula covering mnay factors. Top Indian brains comming out of IITs are excellent raw material fro retraining for any enterprise anywhere in the world. Thats all and no More!!!!!!!!! I know it since my only son- s super brain - has been out of India with full scholorships since he was 14 yrs old and is currently working in the USA after a triple major graduation with 'Mortor Award"! So this mental block that 'we are the graetest' is doing nothing but only making us Indians vunerable to flattery and international

Saturday, November 17, 2007

MBA: A bubble about to burst

All that glitters is not gold. The salaries which are said to be given are the CTC, and a major portion is performance based incentives which is extremely difficult to achieve. One more angle to the story is all these positions are offered by the global investment banks which I am afraid to say is a like a balloon which is expanded as per the requirement. If the investor doesn't get returns the jobs will be immediately curtailed. I also don't understand why big manufacturing and software companies don't offer these kinds of salaries. Is it they can't afford or the grads doesn't deserve. Giving a crore as salary is not so uncommon in today's Corporate India. I think it is bubble to burst as MBAs don't have any specialised knowledge in comparison of that of an ICAI, ICWAI, ICSI or IITan. The big question is that what do they contribute? Any MBA who has succeeded in the corporate world has some other conventional degree or he is simply a genius

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Gujrat - Most prosperous state in the country

One of reason is there are percapita less Technical Colleges in Gujarat.
Though Gujaratis do not need IT, they are making up with Stock Market,Petrochemical Industries, Pharma, Textile,Diamond.

One of the Diamond Mechant has Jewelary Manufacturing Plant in China,Most Diamond Merchants has offices in Begium,USA,Israel- If you look at Indian export you will see Diamond is one of the Bid Export Industry.

There is Shipbreaking Industry-Mostly Keralites work there while boses are Gujaratis.

Gujaratis are spread all over world-Uk,USA,Africa, Newzealand, Europe. 90% percent of US Motel Buisness
is own by Gujaratis/Patels from Surat area. The Printed Cuircuit Board Manufacturing is controlled by Gujaratis in USA.

Gujarat is Most advanced state in INDIA- Gujarati by nature don't go for "Pennies they go after Millions.

Long way to go for rest of INDIA to undestand Gujaratis, they have their own likes and dislikes, IT or no IT Gujarat, is PROSPEROUS STATE.

Monday, November 12, 2007

BPO- what actually cooking?????

BPOs are damaging the Indian culture. Just to make a living, one need not surrender one's identity that has survived thousands of years. The family system has broken down in the alien culture. The dress code is provocative, to say the least. Drugs, cigarettes, booze are all perverting morals. Even the work environment has become temporary and stressful. In trying to catch the train, one should not leave one's luggage and family on the platform. The warning is on the wall, one can only ignore it at one's own peril.”


I think there should be some serious research on their behaviour and factors effecting it.
Although we cannot deny the jobs that are generated; still we can subside sideeffects then it would be wonderfull.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

BJP questions Left on N-deal, China relations

NEW DELHI: The BJP has questioned the intentions of Communist Parties’ in the light of CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat's claim that the strategic alliance between India and the United States was a move to "counter-balance" and "encircle" China.

In a statement, BJP president Rajnath Singh has said that China has developed a deep naval base from Pakistan's Gwader to the Coco Island in Burma and right through Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and has established posts to monitor the movement of Indian Navy and wondered why the Left never looked at it as encircling of India by China.

Singh has also questioned the Left's propensity to publicly express their concerns for China, but on the other hand, maintain a deafening silence on critical national issues such as the continuing massacres and saga of violence being propagated by the Naxalites across an increasing red corridor within the country, or the ruthless crushing of peasants who are fighting to protect their rights and honour in Nandigram.

The statement also demanded that the Left should clarify their stand on other series of issues like China making ridiculous claims over Tawang and other parts of Indian Territory. What was the stand of the Left parties when China refused granting a visa to IAS officers from Arunachal Pradesh a few months ago? Why the communists opposed our Pohkran tests in 1998 when they had previously welcomed the Chinese nuclear tests in 1964? How do the communists explain their supporting the murder of democracy through the imposition of Emergency in 1975? Why did the communist parties refrain from calling China an aggressor in the 1962 war? Can the communists explain their support for partition of India in 1947? Or even their taking the side of the British imperialism during the Quit India Movement in 1942? The nation knows the truth about the historical dual character of the communists, whose postulations have always been diametrically opposed to the national ethos and mainstream, he added.

Singh said that the so-called protectors of the masses, even after 30 years of textbook Marxist rule, which should have converted West Bengal into a "Marxist Paradise", have miserably converted it into a land of gross poverty and even unprecedented food riots. The comparison of one decade of the BJP rule in Gujarat alone juxtaposed against the 30 years of Communist misrule in West Bengal singularly exposes the gap between tall claims and ground reality.

The BJP president demanded a clarification from the government about Saturday's news reports that the Central Government had actually issued a circular to prevent cabinet ministers from attending a felicitation ceremony for the Dalai Lama. Has this circular also been issued under the pressure of the Left Parties and their concerns towards China, he wondered?

The BJP president said that the nation is totally fatigued by the unending drama of the Leftists whether they will permit the UPA Government to complete its full term or withdraw support earlier.

The Left Parties position on this issue is like shifting sands in a barren desert, a tactical strategy to confuse the nation by constantly changing positions on virtually a daily basis, he said.

The BJP president finally wanted to know whether the entire opposition of the Communist Parties’ towards the Indo-US nuclear deal was inspired by Chinese concerns or an echo of the BJP's nationalist concerns about our strategic sovereignty, the right to develop credible nuclear deterrent and our entire nuclear weapons programme.